在上周刚刚过去的基民盟全国代表大会上，梅尔茨（Friedrich Merz）再次被选举为该党主席，任期两年，这意味着如果他带领基民盟在2025年赢得选举，将很有可能成为德国下一任总理。    WASHINGTON -- With the growing popularity of disposable e-cigarettes, communities across the U.S. are confronting a new vaping problem: how to safely get rid of millions of small, battery-powered devices that are considered hazardous waste.For years, the debate surrounding vaping largely centered on its risks for high school and middle school students enticed by flavors like gummy bear, lemonade and watermelon.But the recent shift toward e-cigarettes that can’t be refilled has created a new environmental dilemma. The devices, which contain nicotine, lithium and other metals, cannot be reused or recycled. Under federal environmental law, they also aren’t supposed to go in the trash.U.S. teens and adults are buying roughly 12 million disposable vapes per month. With little federal guidance, local officials are finding their own ways to dispose of e-cigarettes collected from schools, colleges, vape shops and other sites.“We are in a really weird regulatory place where there is no legal place to put these and yet we know, every year, tens of millions of disposables are thrown in the trash,” said Yogi Hale Hendlin, a health and environmental researcher at the University of California, San Francisco.In late August, sanitation workers in Monroe County, New York, packed more than 5,500 brightly colored e-cigarettes into 55-gallon steel drums for transport. Their destination? A giant, industrial waste incinerator in northern Arkansas, where they would be melted down.Sending 350 pounds of vapes across the country to be burned into ash may not sound environmentally friendly. But local officials say it’s the only way to keep the nicotine-filled devices out of sewers, waterways and landfills, where their lithium batteries can catch fire.“These are very insidious devices,” said Michael Garland, who directs the county’s environmental services. “They’re a fire risk and they’re certainly an environmental contaminant if not managed properly.”Elsewhere, the disposal process has become both costly and complicated. In New York City, for example, officials are seizing hundreds of thousands of banned vapes from local stores and spending about 85 cents each for disposal.HAZARDOUS WASTEVaping critics say the industry has skirted responsibility for the environmental impact of its products, while federal regulators have failed to force changes that could make vaping components easier to recycle or less wasteful.Among the possible changes: standards requiring that e-cigarettes be reusable or forcing manufacturers to fund collection and recycling programs. New York, California and several other states have so-called extended product responsibility laws for computers and other electronics. But those laws don't cover vaping products and there are no comparable federal requirements for any industry.Environmental Protection Agency rules for hazardous waste don’t apply to households, meaning it's legal for someone to throw e-cigarettes in the garbage at home. But most businesses, schools and government facilities are subject to EPA standards in how they handle harmful chemicals like nicotine, which the EPA considers an “acute hazardous waste," because it can be poisonous at high levels.In the U.S., the push to manage disposable e-cigarettes has chiefly come from schools, which can face stricter regulation if they generate more than a few pounds of hazardous waste per month. Monroe County schools pay $60 to dispose of each one-gallon container of vapes. More than two thirds of the e-cigarettes collected by the county come from schools.“Our schools were very relieved because they had confiscated so much of this material,” Garland said. “If you think of all the high schools across the country, they are in a very difficult place right now.”Lithium in e-cigarette batteries is the same highly sought metal used to power electric vehicles and cellphones. But the quantities used in vaping devices are too small to warrant salvage. And nearly all disposable e-cigarette batteries are soldered into the device, making it impractical to separate them for recycling.Disposable e-cigarettes currently account for about 53% of the multi-billion U.S. vaping market, according to U.S. government figures, more than doubling since 2020.Their rise is a study in unintended consequences.In early 2020, the Food and Drug Administration banned nearly all flavors from reusable e-cigarettes like Juul, the cartridge-based device blamed for sparking a nationwide surge in underage vaping. But the policy didn't apply to disposables, opening the door to thousands of new varieties of fruit and candy-flavored vapes, almost all manufactured in China.In recent months the FDA has begun trying to block imports of several leading disposable brands, including Elf Bar and Esco Bar. Regulators consider them all illegal, but they have been unable to stop their entry to the U.S. and the devices are now ubiquitous in convenience stores, gas stations and other shops. FDA’s tobacco chief, Brian King, said in a statement that his agency “will continue to carefully consider the potential environmental impacts” of vaping products.THE COST OF CONFISCATING DISPOSABLE E-CIGARETTESIn 2020, New York City outlawed the vast majority of e-cigarette types, banning flavors that can appeal to youngsters.City employees conduct thousands of inspections annually, and last year issued more than 2,400 citations to corner stores and bodegas selling illegal flavored products. Adding to the challenge are THC vapes sold at hundreds of unlicensed marijuana shops, a separate but related problem that has mushroomed since New York's legalization of recreational pot.Since last November, officials have seized more than 449,000 vape units, according to city figures. New York City is spending about $1,400 to destroy each container of 1,200 confiscated vapes, but many more remain in city storage lockers. “I don’t think anyone ever considered the volume of these in our community,” said New York Sheriff Anthony Miranda, who leads a task force on the issue. “There’s a tremendous amount of resources going into this effort.” A recent lawsuit against four large vaping distributors aims to recoup some of the city's costs. For now, New Yorkers who vape can bring their used e-cigarettes to city-sponsored waste-collection events.Ultimately those vapes meet a familiar fate: They are shipped to Gum Springs, Arkansas, to be incinerated by Veolia, an international waste management firm. The company has incinerated more than 1.6 million pounds of vaping waste in recent years, mostly unsold inventory or discontinued products.Veolia executives say burning e-cigarettes' lithium batteries can damage their incinerators.“Ideally we don’t want to incinerate them because it has to be done very, very slowly. But if have to, we will,” said Bob Cappadona, who leads the company’s environmental services division.Veolia also handles e-cigarettes from Boulder County, Colorado, one of the only U.S. jurisdictions that actively tries to recycle e-cigarette batteries and components.Historically, Boulder has had one of the highest teen vaping rates in the country, peaking at nearly 33% in 2017. “It was like someone flicked the switch. Suddenly e-cigarettes were everywhere,” said Daniel Ryan, principal of Centaurus High School. Beginning in 2019, county officials began distributing bins to schools for confiscated or discarded e-cigarettes. Last year, they collected 3,500. County staffers sort the devices by type, separating those with removable batteries for recycling. Disposables are packed and shipped to Veolia's incinerator. Shelly Fuller, who directs the program, says managing vape waste has gotten more costly and labor intensive with the shift to disposables.“I kind of miss the days when we had Juuls and I could take each battery out and recycle them very easily,” Fuller said. “No one has time to dismantle a thousand Esco Bars.”___AP video journalist Joseph Frederick contributed to this story from New York___Follow Matthew Perrone on Twitter: @AP_FDAwriter___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.。

二 |

德国前总理默克尔曾经领导的基民盟近来重新成为了德国最受欢迎的政党，支持率是德国总理朔尔茨领导的执政党社会民主党（SPD）的两倍。最近一次民调显示，基民盟支持率为30%，社会民主党为15%。

三 |

梅尔茨以90%的选票再次当选基民盟主席，接下来他还需要赢得德国民众的心，他个人的民调支持率一直低于政党支持率。

对此，梅尔茨在接受媒体采访时表示，这并不重要，“真正的新闻是，反对党领袖的支持率远远超过了现任总理”。

德国柏林自由大学现代中国学院客座研究员史世伟对第一财经记者表示，目前梅尔茨的问题是从政没有地方或联邦政府经验，投行经历对于担任总理一职而言较为单薄，“这确实是一个很大的问题，当然如果他竞选时已经接近70岁了，这虽然有一点影响，但也并不是特别大”。

出生于1955年的梅尔茨曾从事法官、律师等职业，1989年进入欧洲议会，在2000年到2002年间出任德国联邦议会联盟党党团主席，并在1998年到2000年以及2002年和2004年间出任基民盟副主席。

不过，在2000年，默克尔成功当选党主席后，梅尔茨在党内的上升路径中断了。2002年，默克尔战胜梅尔茨赢得了德国联邦议会联盟党议会党团主席一职，此后频频落败的梅尔茨辞去了党内职务，2009宣布正式退出政坛。

四 |

政坛失意商场得意。进入商界后，2016年至2020年期间他担任贝莱德德国公司主席。2018年，他重返政坛，这一年，默克尔宣布不再连任基民盟主席。

不过此前梅尔茨都没有赢过继承了默克尔中间派路线的几任党内领导人，直到2021年秋，基民盟及其姐妹党基社盟（CSU）在德国大选中大败，时任基民盟主席拉舍特因选举失利辞职，基民盟需要一位同默克尔路线作出切割的新主席，代表着基民盟保守派势力的梅尔茨抓住了这次机会，在2022年1月的基民盟党代会上以近95%的支持率当选。

尽管在党内支持率稳定，但在德国社会舆论中，梅尔茨支持度并没有那么高。现年68岁的梅尔茨长期以来一直被媒体形容为“冲动”、“易怒”和“脸皮薄”，这与他在基民盟的长期竞争对手默克尔截然相反。

他曾表示，外国寻求庇护者正在接受由德国纳税人支付的昂贵牙科治疗，而普通德国人却很难预约到牙医。他在接受媒体采访时表示，作为反对党领袖，有理由“推陈出新”。他表示，他的评论将“迫使政府采取行动”。

史世伟对第一财经记者表示，梅尔茨彼时的这番表态受到许多人谴责，导致他随后就收回了言论。

梅尔茨则将德国人对他的负面看法归咎于“多年来针对我个人的抨击”。他说，公众的看法不可能在短短两年半的时间内改变。“但我们现在走在正确的道路上，情况正在好转。”同时，他也表示，随着他转向更具政治家风范的行事方式，发表此类评论的日子已经一去不复返了。

“离联邦议院选举（2025年秋季）越近，选民就越不把我看作是反对党领袖，而把我看作是潜在的总理。”他表示，“因此，过去那种干预会越来越少”。

史世伟说， 基民盟目前面临的问题是，要么让梅尔茨作出更好的改变，要么推选一个更好的候选人，但梅尔茨已经年逾70岁，能做出多大的改变并不可知。

“无论如何，现在的联合政府在下一届选举后再存在下去的可能性恐怕较小了，他们每一个的民调目前都不行。

五 | ”史世伟说。

根据近期民调显示，本届联合政府中，SPD支持率为15%，绿党为15%，自民党为4%，与此同时基民盟为30%，德国选择党也达到了15%。

当前，基民盟治理着德国最大、人口最多的几个州，并在社民党执政22年后，于去年重新夺回了德国首都柏林。

六 |

不仅如此，基民盟还与一度闹得很僵的基社盟及其领导人索德（Markus Söder）达成和解。“只有团结一致，我们才能获胜"。梅尔茨表示。

七 |

不过，他的执政之路仍有许多潜在障碍，这很大程度上取决于今年9月在德国萨克森州、勃兰登堡州和图林根州的州议会选举，基民盟正试图在这些州阻止德国选择党的前进。目前民调显示，极右翼政党可能会在德国东部所有三个州获胜。

八 |

在选举结束后，基民盟和基社盟将共同决定2025年的总理候选人。梅尔茨目前是最大热门。但如果基民盟在东部的表现不佳，他的两个竞争对手，即索德和北莱茵-威斯特法伦州州长武斯特（Hendrik Wüst）可能会有机会。目前两人的民调支持率都远高于梅尔茨。

同时，德国国内民调专家认为，鉴于朔尔茨的执政联盟不受欢迎，基民盟的民调数字本应远远高于30%，而造成现状的主要原因是梅尔茨对女性和年轻选民缺乏吸引力。同时，昔日默克尔的支持者中间派选民也对该党的右倾化产生了抵触情绪。

史世伟分析，德国民众不太喜欢梅尔茨的原因，也包括认为他政治经验不足。通常而言，竞选总理职位最好是有当过州长、或者联邦政府部长等经验，但梅尔茨一直在党内担任职位。

此外，由于其投行经验，“德国有些民众认为他的方向可能太过于偏向经济，不那么平衡。”史世伟对记者解释道，不过现在基民盟的其他潜在总理候选人的知名度都不高，更是“险棋”。

史世伟表示，基民盟潜在几个候选人，年龄都偏大。不过德国前总理阿登纳当选时也七十多岁了。

在对华关系方面，梅尔茨也作出过官方表态。据中联部网站消息，2023年当地时间10月12日，中共中央对外联络部部长刘建超在柏林会见德国基民盟主席、联盟党议会党团主席梅尔茨。梅尔茨表示，德方坚定支持贸易自由化，认为良性竞争有助于双方共同进步，愿同中方继续深化经贸往来，鼓励两国企业开展投资合作。

九 | 德中在多边事务保持良好沟通协调，携手可为凝聚全球合力作出重要贡献，德方反对欧中关系“脱钩”，将坚持欧中互惠双赢。联盟党愿为推动欧中关系发展作出积极贡献。

北京外国语大学欧盟与区域发展研究中心主任崔洪建对第一财经记者表示，在德国，政府内部的不同派别对华政策存在差异。德国社民党倾向于采取务实稳健的对华政策，而绿党和自民党则更倾向于意识形态化和地缘政治化。

十 |

“同时，德国政界和企业界也存在一定程度的扭曲现象。这表现在德国政府的一些部门不支持中德经贸合作，甚至设限，但大多数德国企业仍然看好中国市场，愿意增加投资并拓展与中国的合作。”他表示，这种情况不仅与国际形势变化有关，也与中欧关系的内容发生变化有关，最主要的是与德国内部政治变化相关。只要德国内部政治变化仍处于碎片化状态，其对华政策的矛盾性或扭曲性就可能长期存在。